Table of Contents
Y241221 / Core PCE registered 0.115% for November 2024 / 1.379% annualized MoM increase / A decrease from the adjusted October 2024 figure
Below is the Core PCE data for the last 10 year period, ending with the most recent data in November 2024.
This data is subject to revision by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and was last accessed December 21, 2024.
November 2024 figures came in at 1.379% annualized MoM increase or 2.389% annualized 6 month increase.
Scroll past the chart for amplifying information on data source and interpreting the output.
1 Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) – November 2024
Percent change MoM annualized (blue) and percent change last 6 months annualized (gold)
2 Data Source
The PCE Index is produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which revises previously published PCE data to reflect updated information or new methodology, providing consistency across decades of data.
Available here
The data shown above is seasonally adjusted, reported on a monthly frequency, and indexed to 2017 price levels.
3 Interpreting results
The PCE Index is a measure of the prices that people living in the U.S. pay for goods and services. The change in the PCE price index is known for capturing inflation (or deflation) across a wide range of consumer expenses and reflecting changes in consumer behavior.
4 Why this output can be helpful
The Core PCE Price Index illustrated above, is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stated preferred measure of inflation. This is the primary gauge they reference when targeting their stated 2.0% level. This core index excludes food and energy prices (heavily influenced by commodity prices) in an attempt to illustrate a more accurate level of underlying inflation within the economy.
COMMENT: The future inflation or disinflation we may or may not experience, in our view, will likely have highly material impacts on the cost of debt for all borrowers (governments, corporations, consumers, etc.). We see inflation as the most important factor for the cost of borrowing, excluding issuer specific risks, and believe expected future returns on all investment will be negatively impacted should inflation materially rise.
